I figured I would copy the old site here in case someone had a week to kill :)

Updated 9/22/2016

Recent news:

9/21/16 20 Walsh St sold today for $1.96M. It is a small (1300 sq ft) cottage in the Brant Point area. The reason I mention it is because the agent who sold it called me looking for a lot to move the house to. In other words the buyer paid nearly $2M (only $800 short when including Land Bank) for a lot that is 995 sq ft bigger but has a 720 sq ft smaller allowable footprint, not to mention you can forget a full basement here. This means they paid $1071.39 per buildable sq ft less the availability of a basement. I think thats the highest I've ever seen. I need to figure out a way to move this lot to Brant Pt. Maybe I can rename Camelia Lane "Brant Pt Court South" or something.

9/12/16 A newly created lot at 18 Mount Vernon St was just listed for $980,000. This is a 5070 sq ft lot in ROH zoning like 2 Camelia. You can cover 50% of it, so there is 2535 sq ft available ground cover, or only 15 sq ft less than 2 Camelia. So the 2 lots are very comparable in that sense. Price per sq ft of land here is $193.29 vs $146.77 for 2 Camelia. The difference per buildable sq ft is $386.58 here vs $293.55 at 2 Camelia. Since there is no assessment yet, if we look at other similarly sized lots in the area we get an average of $131.52 per sq ft which would mean about $666,835 for this lot. The $980,000 asking price is 147% of this. 2 Camelia is only 116% of assessed. With the $231,000 higher price and the fact you have traffic right there on 2 of the 3 sides of this lot compared to 2 Camelia's more shady and private location, I believe 2 Camelia compares quite well against this new listing.

9/10/16 A vacant lot at 16 Nanachumacke Ln off Hummock pond has been listed for $1.695M. The lot allows for a large 4480 sq ft of ground cover, but you cannot build either a 2nd dwelling nor a studio, so its all got to be the "main" house. Combined with the 4 bedroom shared septic limit, its pretty unlikely you will use that 4480 sq ft of ground cover. This $1.695M ask represents a $400,000 jump from the last "inland" lot sold on this street (#18 $1.295M on 2/7/14). A lot at the end of the road, with views looking down toward Hummock Pond (in other words a superior lot to #16) sold for $1.4M on 7/7/15. At the time I calculated this $1.4M sale to be 47.1% of 128% (current avg sale to assessed for homes) of the average assessment of homes on this road. $1.695M would be a very high 60.8% of that number ($2.792M). 60.8% of a $2.25M sale at 2 Camelia Ln would be $1.368M.

9/9/16 55 Goldfinch has been listed for $625K. This is a lot with HDC approved plans for a 3500 sq ft (big for Naushop) Huntington modular home. This lot sold on 7/31/15 for $512,500. Considering the absolute max price in Naushop is about $1.3M, with the average more toward $1M, this would represent 47.3% of a final $1.3M value (giving it a $10K credit for the approved plans).

9/1/16 For the month of August there were 3 lots sold suitable for 2nd homes (residential 499K and up) with an average selling price of $1.483M and DOM (days on market) of 304 (only for one of the sales though as only one of the three was sold through a broker).

Looking at the past few months:

July only saw 1 sale at $3.112M which was 142% of assessed and was not listed with broker.

June saw 4 sales with an average price of $1.867M, and average price to assessed of 164.5% and 293.5 average DOM.

May had 3 sales with an average price of 1.18M and surprisingly low 84.6% of assessed (the 71% lowball sale at Hydrangea Ln (see below for whats going on in this neighborhood) skewed the results from the other two (92% and 91%). I looked back and these were the 3 lowest sales compared to assessed in the 2nd home market in the last year, they just happened to sell in the same month. As you can see this was not a trend made. Average DOM was 327 only for one sale as 2 out of 3 were not listed with a broker.

The "pipeline" (those with accepted offer and under P&S) consists of 12 lots with an average price of $1.133M, and average price to assessed of 136.95% and an average 362.2 DOM. Of note is only one of the 12 was not listed with a broker, bucking the year+ trend of a majority of lots sold without being listed with a broker, quite a quick, massive shift.

I found this along with the DOM figure to be very interesting and shows that the older land listings are now selling, indicating land is really REALLY running out and the market is catching up with older listings. This also indicates the "land hunters" arent finding what they need as far as unlisted land goes. If there arent enough land listings on the market, buyers will look for lots that arent listed with a broker and contact the owners, which is what we've seen in recent months with approx 2/3rds of land sales coming from "off market" (I've had a few inquiries like these in recent weeks, they havent even seen Zillow or this web site). Then if thats not enough, buyers are forced back to the listed lots. It appears that is what we are seeing now. The question is, where will they go once the listed lots are gone??? Martha's Vineyard? Also in a market where 80% of land listings are over $1M, 63% of this pipeline is under $1M meaning more than 1/2 the pipeline is coming from only 20% of the market. In other words, land under $1M is disappearing extremely quickly. As of today there are only 6 lots 500K-795K and 10 lots $895K-1M.

8/25/16 A couple of weeks back the junk yard at 49 Hummock Pond Rd as well as a couple of lots on Hawthorne Lane sold for a total of $3.975M, or 135.4% of the total assessments (which is only counted as 100% on everyone's web site). I couldnt believe this place was cleaned up so I took a ride by and I was right, there are still probably 100 cars, trucks, jeeps, etc etc etc in there. The obvious value here is in subdivision, but when people are paying 135% of assessed for a junk yard that isnt yet cleaned up....wow. It will be nice to have that place cleaned up, but cleaned up doesnt mean just cleaning up the surface....people havent been able to use wells in that area for years. I guess we'll see. Maybe they will install an oil well and hit it big. Either way, nice to see it getting cleaned up. Update: While I was on the boat headed back to America, there was a flatbed truck with 4 crushed cars on the back, each with a number spray painted on the side. The highest # was 116, so there were at least that many cars there.

8/24/16 36 York St has sold for $1.485M This is a cute nicely restored house on a tiny lot with zero room for expansion 5 feet from a busy street just up the hill from 5 corners. A $1.5M ($1,514,700 after Land Bank tax) sale here certainly demonstrates not only the vacant lot value of 2 Camelia, but its potential finished value as well.

8/19/16 A lot at 2 Cato Lane just came on the market for $635K with HDC approved plans. This is not a building permit, but HDC approved plans can be handy and speed things along IF those plans are what you want. If what you want is significantly different, it can be of questionable value since you have to go back to HDC for any changes, plus the cost of re-design, etc. This lot is located behind the hospital off of Vesper Ln at the end of a short dead end dirt road. It is similar in size to 2 Camelia (500 sq ft bigger) but is in R1 zoning, so your ground cover is limited to 1665 sq ft, or about 885 sq ft less than 2 Camelia. 2 sides of this lot abut Town owned park property ("Dead Horse Valley" where the kids go sledding when it snows), so you have nobody on one side (well, for 170 feet anyway, there is a subdivision going in up on the hill) or in back of you. Because of the way the lots are situated and because the lot is only 56 ft wide, the house next door (a Huntington modular, so go look if you are interested in them) will be only 15 feet from yours. The lot was bought for $425K on 1/6/15 by an LLC which is controlled by a local real estate broker, who kinda shoulda disclosed that. If it was just straight in his name he would be required to disclose that "owner is a licensed Massachusetts Real Estate Broker", so I think he should have here as well.

Due to this being close to the Hospital, you might have a bit of OCCASIONAL helicopter noise when Medflights come in (center of lot is 1135 ft away from center of helipad, 2 Camelia is 1455 ft), but its really nothing at all like being next to the airport. 2 Camelia can get some of this noise occasionally as well depending on the wind direction, but I've always had the attitude that someone is having a much worse day than I am if they have to go for a ride in that thing, so who cares about 20 seconds of noise when the neighbors lawn getting mowed takes 20 minutes.

Anyway as far as comps, 2 Cato is priced at a high 256% of its $243K assessment (I gave it a $10K credit for the HDC plans). 2 Camelia is priced at 116% of pretty uniform neighborhood assessment. This lot sold for $425K on 1/6/15, about 20 months ago. The lot next door (#4) sold for $305K on 7/9/13 (another example of why spec builders cant expect to buy new land at 2013 prices, a 39% appreciation in 18 months). And this buyer, a real estate broker, who should be "in the know" (which is why he should have disclosed his involvement), figured on even more appreciation in the next year or so (47% more actually). Thats 105% appreciation in 3 years if it sells for $625K. On 9/30/15 the 2200 sq ft Huntington modular house built on the lot at #4 sold for $1.25M. Incidentally, if you bought 2 Cato for $625K and built the same 2200 sq ft Huntington like next door for $275/sq ft, your total investment would be $1.23M, or only $20K less than #4 sold for a year ago, so not much equity there! This would be like me asking $1.6M for 2 Camelia. Whoever did the house at #4 made money because they paid $320,000 less for the land. A $1.57M sale at #2 would be required to make the same dollar profit today. To make the same percentage return the selling price would need to be $1.614M.

The asking price (excluding 10K HDC credit) is exactly 50% of this sale next door (land cost to final value - 2 Camelia is 33.2%). #2 Cato is a little nicer lot than #4 next door though because it has open space on 2 sides and is at the end of the street, but we arent talking millions here. A sale of $1.882M would be required in order to equal the same 33.2% land to value at 2 Camelia. While I can see a higher sale than next door, I dont think that much higher (maybe $1.5M? -I try to be generous in others, conservative on mine), which would make $625K 41.6% of the final value. If 2 Camelia were valued at 41.6% of my $2.25M final estimate, the price would be $936K. Going the other way, a $498K price for 2 Cato would be required for this lot if this was priced at 33.2% of a $1.5M final sale price.

This is a 450 ft longer walk to the Hub on Main St, but I measured right out the back door through Dead Horse Valley, up the hill (for Nantucket, this is a HILL!) across Prospect and down North Mill St, a nice walk, so I would call it about even on that.

Its not a bad lot or anything, its just in a different price bracket and this price for this bracket is a little high. If you bought 2 Camelia for $749,000 and sold it for $2.25M, your $124,000 higher land cost would net you a $750,000 higher sales price (figuring an $1.5M sale here at 2 Cato), or only a 16.5% land cost for that additional $750,000 in sales price. So with the much larger ground cover and approx $750K+ higher sale potential, I think 2 Camelia compares quite well against 2 Cato.

8/18/16 a lot at 12 Scotts way sold for $725,000, or 137% of assessed, right at the recent 9 month running average of 136%. This was listed in June of 2015 for $998K, reduced to $875K in July, then to $862,500 in December. The listing then expired 6 months later in May of this year. It appears someone came in with a "lowball" offer after the listing expired. After 5% in commissions, the net proceeds from a $862,500 sale would have been $819K, so this sale was $94K less than that, so it actually was kind of lowball. Still, it was 137% of assessed. Y'all are welcome to make me a "lowball" offer of 137% of the assessment of 2 Camelia Ln ($885K).

7/20/16 Nearby 1 1/2 story 4 bedroom home at 9 Back St (which is next door to the vacant lot also numbered 9 that sold for $1M in 2007) has an accepted offer from a 1.925M ask after being on the market less than ONE DAY. (8/20 I went to the estate sale here and it seemed like a much smaller house than advertised, must be the layout)

6/20/16 The lot at 4 Pilgrim Rd that sold June 3rd for 100% of the $1.195M ask (152% of assessed) has just sold AGAIN for $1.6M! Not bad for holding it all of 2 weeks! People must want to sit in traffic in the Quaker Prospect High School summer traffic backups awfully bad!

The sale of 10 Weymouth St (portion of) for $700,000, a 2877 sq ft spin-off from 10 Weymouth is news. The house itself has also sold the same week for $1.7M giving the street a slight sales boost from the $1.485M sale across the street and a land to value ratio of 41.1%. If this ratio were applied to 2 Camelia, the price would be $926,000. It sold for $243 per sq ft (this would translate into $1.241M if applied to 2 Camelia). 2 Camelia Ln is priced at $146.77 per sq ft , which is right about where the other 3 undersized lots on Weymouth St are assessed at (avg $145.89/sq ft). This average assessed value applied to the newly split off lot would come to about $417,424 for my estimated assessed value for this new lot. This $700,000 sale price was 167% of that. 167% of the assessed value of 2 Camelia Ln (646K) would be $1.078M. There are numerous other examples below that point to a $1M+ value for 2 Camelia Ln.

This runs a bit long, and is turning into a bit of a admittedly disorganized long winded blog since any time there is something new to add, it doesnt make the old stuff obsolete. Regardless my long windedness, if you are shopping for land on Nantucket, I think it'll be worth the 15 minute read regardless which property you decide to purchase. If you are buying land to build a house that you will have in the family for years and years, then all these numbers might mean a little less than if you are building it purely for investment. Either way you want to know if you are getting a good deal.

If you are building on spec, its all numbers. Spec builders are going to have an increasingly difficult time buying land using numbers of just a couple of years ago, especially with 2013-2014 land prices and 2016 home prices. The recent purchase of the junk yard and its 100+ vehicles demonstrates this quite loudly. Land running out is causing them to look at existing houses for just the land, which effectively drives up land costs 30-50%. This in a crazy way can make a dumpy 1970's ranch more attractive than an 1850 colonial because you cant tear the 1850 colonial down, but you can demo that 1970's ranch in a heartbeat. In looking at recent HDC agendas, it looks like the demo derby has already begun.

If you are buying just to park some money in something solid but are afraid of buying at the top, I'm not a psychic, but you are getting this lot at a 25% discount to what a nearby (250 ft away) similarly sized lot (without the privacy factor of Camelia lane) sold for 9 1/2 years ago (9 Back St, yes thats NINE years ago at the peak) and for the same price a similarly sized lot 850 feet away (again without the privacy factor) sold for 3 years ago in May of 2013 (8 Coon St).

Nantucket is a very unique market, both in real estate and the entire island economy as a whole. While Nantucket is not immune to economic gyrations, it is typically a bit more insulated to slumps primarily because people with money still have money during a recession. During the Great Recession the number of sales took a hit and new construction took a dive (which affected the local tradesmen considerably, over 3000 people left the island by water company usage estimates). But even though the recession hit the Wall St crowd much harder than your average recession, there wasnt a giant wave of foreclosures in the 2nd home market (most were in the lower end - - $500K condos, etc). This is because of the general level of wealth of holders of Nantucket real estate (they werent forced to sell) and the fact that the rental market remained strong. Maybe people weren't buying as many homes, but they still came to Nantucket for their 2 weeks of the Juice Bar and sand between their toes. For example, 18 Back St (corner of Back and Pleasant, the rear of this property is to your left as you turn into Camelia Ln) rents for $6500/week and has over $80,000 worth of bookings for the 2016 summer season (this is before April 1st!) The VRBO # is 130603. Another example is 15 Williams St (google "Earl Gray Nantucket)" which has $86,500 worth of bookings. Its pretty much the same everywhere, already booked! That rental income safety net supported values then, as it does today. Many markets dont have that. Nantucket is unique in a lot of good ways (Amazing restaurants, half the island in preservation, 85 miles of soft sandy beach, etc), but also especially in real estate.

2 Camelia Lane represents the best deal on Nantucket Island that can yield a $2m+ property once developed. The next available lots that (barely) meet this criteria are in Sconset on Hydrandea Ln in Sconset, however due to zoning, those lots afford significantly less ground cover, about 1000 sq ft less (a 2000 sq ft difference in a 2 story house), which limits the size of the house (or house and cottage) you can build. Also the 2 recent sales on this street, in addition to another price reduction point to possibly the only neighborhood on the island with declining values. There are also lots on Aurora Ln that might barely touch the $2m mark, but have numerous restrictions well beyond town zoning that make them less attractive than 2 Camelia, in addition to higher prices.

2 Camelia Lane is located in the Historic District, which allows for 50% ground cover (how much of the lot you can cover with buildings, here it is 2550 sq ft), zero front setback, and 5 foot rear and side setbacks. This ROH (Residential Old Historic) zoning gives 2 Camelia a distinct advantage over many other lots, including some priced significantly higher.

How much of a difference can this make? Compared with R1 zoning (which there is a lot of), which is the same 5,000 sq ft min lot size but only 30% allowable ground cover, this 20%, or 1000 sq ft difference in ground cover (on a 5,000 sq ft lot) can mean a 2000 sq ft difference on a 2 story house, or about 2700 sq ft if the basement is finished (saving 300 sq ft for furnace, etc), or a 3200 sq ft difference if you finish 4 levels (3rd floors are typically counted at about 1/2 of a first or second floor because they only count space that is 5 feet or more from the floor to ceiling). Thats up to a 3200 sq ft bigger house (or house and cottage combo) than a similarly sized R1 lot like 16 West York Ln.

In other words, an ROH lot has a 66% bigger allowable ground cover than a comparable R1 lot.

How does this compare with other lots on the market? Below is a list of properties with smaller (or same) allowable ground cover (GC) but are priced higher than 2 Camelia.

Address Size GC (sq ft) Price

14 Aurora Ln 8910 2000(cov limit) $795K

20 Sparks(comm) 5007 2503 $795K

15 Aurora Ln 13,184 2000(cov limit) $895K

2 Red Mill Ln 7874 2243 $899K

2 Seven Mile (Scon) .5ac 2500 $925K

8 Nonantum (+septic) .3ac 1500 (limit 2br) $955K

18 Mt Vernon St 5070 2535 $980K

33A New St (Scon) 5600 1680 $995K

33B New St (Scon) 5692 1708 $995K

5 Hawks Cir TomNvrs .46ac 2505 $1.195M

139 Polpis (+septic) 1.22ac 1594 $1.199M

2 Winn St 8276 2483 $1.395M

36 Wigwam Rd 1.16ac 1516 $1.395M

10 Plainfield (Scon) .5ac 2500 $1.395M

20 Walsh(sold for lot) 6098 1829 $1.96M

As you can see, you can spend a lot more and not be able to build as big of a house that you can on 2 Camelia. Even if you dont "max it out", that allowable ground cover will always have value. You can also see that the farther you get out of Town, the larger the lots usually get. If its land area you are after, you likely wont be buying in Town. If you want a lot of yard AND a lot of house, just bring a lot of money. Life is simple like that :)

The only lots priced less than 2 Camelia that have more available ground cover are some of the RC-2 (residential/commercial) lots out by the airport which are simply not the same market as 2 Camelia.

For the final value potential of this lot, my estimate is $2.25M, which is 90% of an asking price of $2.495M (latest avg sale is 95% of ask, which would be $2.37M). This would make 2 Camelia's $749,000 asking price 30.0% of the completed home's asking price and 33.2% of a probable selling price. Its entirely possible you could "build up" the neighborhood a bit and get more, but that is up to you. I've seen it work in Surfside 2 years ago and set off an appreciation and building boom in that area. The people who renovated nearby 1 Gardner Perry Ln sure thought so with their $4.595M asking price and $20-24,000 rental (rental appears booked!). Altogether I am quite comfortable with my $2.25M number and think its a very reasonable assumption. I have always tried to err on the conservative side when coming up with this number and tend to be generous when evaluating other neighborhood's potential values. This puts a finished 2 Camelia Lane in the $2.0-2.5M segment which has the least inventory to time of any price segment on Nantucket other than the scant under $1M segment.

One thing people ask about often is what the assessed value is. The "new" 2016 assessment is $646K, making this lot 116% of assessed. The average of 45 second home lots sold in the last 9 months is 136%.

The 2016 assessment is derived from the supposed value at Jan 1 2015. This is derived from sales from calendar year 2014. In other words the 2016 assessment is made up of sales from between 1 and 2 years ago.

The latest image of Nantucket on Google Earth is May 23rd, 2015. I "flew" around the island and counted 149 construction sites. In the last year (or so) there have only been about 67 land sales that would generate a property worth $1.2 million-ish or more, those geared to the 2nd home market. It doesnt take a genius to see the coming land crunch. Its not that there isnt going to be enough land in 5 years, there isnt going to be enough land NEXT year. There isnt enough NOW.

In fact, the closer you look at the market, the more glaring the land shortage becomes. If you take out the lower priced lots out by the airport, and the few covenant lots, and just count the lots that will be relevant in the 2nd home market (also taking out duplicate listings, commercial and Tuckernuck), there are really only 85 total lots on the market as of 9/3/16 that you may be considering. However, 80% (68) of them are over $1m.

Of interesting note is the recent listing of 37 lots (these are included in the 68 over $1M) all at once out in Sconset on Cannonbury Lane for $1.55M each which represents 43.5% of the lots on the market. It will be quite some time before these are all sold and you have a prayer of any appreciation (like forever). The land assessments are all a very similar $1.275M for all the lots and $2.34M average for lots with houses. This gives a 54.4% assessed land to assessed value ratio which makes it seem like these land assessments are quite high to me. I've seem a lot of land assessments being around 40% of average neighborhood values, which would lead to an assessed value of 936K for these lots. Applying the recent 128% of assessed in recent sales (for houses) gives this neighborhood a probable $2.995M average sales potential, so a 51.7% land to value on a selling price basis vs adjusted potential value (2 Camelia's ratio on a selling price basis is 33.2%). If these were priced at the same land cost to final value as 2 Camelia, these lots would have an asking price of $995,000. If there was only one or two lots for sale, $1.55M would still be high. The fact they are "dumping" (I use quotes because dumping usually suggests some sort of discount!) all 37 at once makes the $1.55M extremely expensive. Having all 37 on the market all at once I dont expect them to start moving until they are discounted by at least 50%. We might see some developer make a deal for all 37, but I wouldnt pay more than $500K each (thats still $18.5M, a pretty big investment before breaking ground on house #1) for them in a sale such as that so as to allow selling the completed homes at a lower price because unless you have a really long time horizon, you are going to have lots of competition on this street....namely YOU for a very long time. Otherwise I hope the buyer is really young. Unless you can buy them all (and for a screaming deal), you will be stuck with lots for sale next door to your project...forever. It must be some kind of estate settlement as this is a completely terrible way of doing this. I dont see this as affecting the Nantucket land market balance as they are both "way out there" in Sconset near Low Beach, and also "way out there" as far as price.

Update 8/16/16: Its not surprising to see an new listing at #24 Cannonbury for $3.295M, which puts a 90% offer at $2.965M, right at the going rate of 128% of assessed value average for homes on this street (funny how that works!). So, properly priced...if you dont know about those 37 neighboring lots for sale.

I also just noticed the last lot sale in this neighborhood was 7 Westerwick Dr for $700,000 in 2015 after being on the market since 2011.

If we dont even count these 37 lots, there are just 49 lots (incl 2 Camelia) on the market with 31 of them, or 63.2% over $1M.

This leaves:

7 lots $900K-1.0M (3@995K)

3 lots $800-900K (all three are 895-899K)

3 lots $700-800K (incl 2 Camelia, other 2 are 795K)

2 lots 600-700 $625K 2 Cato + $669K 9 Hydrangea

3 lots in the $500-600K range

There are only 5 lots available that are less expensive than 2 Camelia and 43 lots that are more expensive (not incl the 37 Cannonbury lots) that are geared towards residential, and only 1 of those less expensive lots barely makes a $2M final value neighborhood (9 Hydrangea Ln in Sconset for $719K (just reduced to $669K) but the last lot sale on this street was $640K and home sale $1.67M, these lots also afford 1000 sq ft less ground cover).

So, if you are looking for land in the 6-800K range, you only have 5 choices. If you are willing to spend up to 900K you now have 3 more, now 8 choices. Spending up to $1M gets you 7 more. 149 projects going on last May (2015), 49 lots on the market with 31 of them over $1m . Get the picture?

I have had a few people do "drive bys" on Pleasant St but didnt go in and actually look at the lot because it "looked too private in there". Thats one of the attributes of it. You have to actually go in there. There are some 11x17 plot plans in the old shed (which is only "Nantucket locked"). Incidentally, in 21 years on Nantucket, if my car keys werent in the center console, I was completely lost as to where they might be (you dont want to do this at the Chicken Box on Saturday night though, it might get "borrowed", but DO go to the Chicken Box, they have some great musical acts!).

VISION. This is where people make $$$$$$$ on Nantucket! If you dont have it, someone else makes the profit! To buy land and build a home takes vision, which I have learned not everyone has. You have to be able to envision a beautiful house with a nice hedged in landscaped yard, which an architect can help you with. If you are looking at the lot (or any property on Nantucket) during the winter, you need to be able to imagine everything GREEN. There is a world of difference between January and June on Nantucket. They dont call Nantucket the "Grey Lady" because of how it looks in July and August. The reward for that vision is the equity you reap. If you are impatient and want to write a check and walk in the door, thats fine too but you dont get that equity reward, the spec builder (or house flipper) does. To get an idea of the difference hedges make, take a peek next door at 78 Pleasant, very nice in there. 78 Pleasant was designed by Milton Rowland, in case you like the look of it (I do!). A piece of trivia, Nantucket is the largest consumer of privet hedge bushes in the eastern United States.

But Wait! There's more!

An added bonus of building vs buying a completed home is you dont pay the 2% land bank fee on either the cost of the building, nor the equity you gain, just the land. This all depends on what you build, and how much it sells for (or is worth), but it could be in the $30,000 range here. Thats not enough for a boat slip on Old North Wharf ($4.75M), but its enough for a salad with extra lettuce at the Club Car! All kidding aside, this savings alone could buy you your "Nantucket Car" (fully restored Grand Wagoneer perhaps?) so that once you are all settled with the house you dont have to float the Steamship Authority's annual budget anymore. Just fly in and everything is here. Even if you are flying private, it doesnt seem as expensive when you consider you arent paying the $500 per round trip for the car on the boat. So you get a $30,000 "ACK Car allowance" plus you save $500 on Ferry costs each trip.

If you live near NY (White Plains) I've seen a small plane charter that is $495 for the whole plane (3 seats) and $798 on Tradewinds ($398 if you are going "backwards"). No going through all the fun at LaGuardia which is all torn up causing check=in lines to stretch down the street, or JFK, no 4-5 hours driving up I-95, no dealing with cape traffic or the boat, hop on the plane and in 1 hour you're on ACK! Not bad! Flying private from the Boston area (Bedford (BED), Norwood(OWD), Lawrence (LWM), etc) area typically takes about 30-40 minutes. Marshfield (GHG) 20-30 minutes. The trending cost (getting lower) vs value (higher every day not having to deal with TSA and crowds) equation has become increasingly attractive in recent years. Its no wonder private air travel is booming. Relieving all that travel stress will make your Nantucket escape all the more replenishing.

Building costs vary greatly by level of construction. Obviously they will be higher than in "America" but the house will be worth more when it is completed. If it wasnt worth it, the island wouldnt be the beehive of activity it is. If a builder wont get out of bed for less than $750/sq ft, shop around. As you will see below, 1 Long Pond sold for $445/sq ft, which presumably included some level of profit. I've seen other examples in this price range (and lower, see below). This makes me think some houses are being built in the low-mid 300's per sq ft range. Of course, they are also being built for much more. I'm not a contractor and levels of construction are infinitely variable. That $750/ft guy might be worth every penny, but maybe you dont need that fancy of a house. This doesnt mean you cant have a nice house, its just that on an island with 32 properties for sale over $10M you have some pretty amazing (and very expensive to build) places. I worked on a house that cost over $1000 per sq ft, and just the electrical was over $440,000, an amazing place! It was post and beam and ALL wood! There are some amazing craftsmen on the island. Thats something you will have to decide. You can gold plate everything like Donald Trump if you want. I know a builder who may have availability and could probably answer some of your questions. Fall and winter is the time to ask, not in late June when everyone is scrambling to complete their winter projects before the 4th of July do or die deadline.

The least expensive option is a modular. Huntington Homes in VT (see https://huntingtonhomesvt.com/) has sold hundreds of homes on Nantucket. As you will see below, there are examples for sale in the $300/sq ft range. Build quality is good (these are NOT your Grandpa's double-wides!), finish quality is lower, but final cost is also lower (you get what you pay for!), and completion time is shorter. I looked into putting one on this lot a few years back. One caveat about modulars is there is more work to be done on site after delivery than many people realize. While they are still quicker, (one day there is a foundation, the next day you drive by and there is a house...before noon!), there is still a lot of work to be done (all basement heating and plumbing, tying all the wiring together, finishing the seams, shingling, etc). Also with modulars, you are not allowed to be your own general contractor (unless you have your contractor's license, of course). This is a Massachusetts state law enacted to protect consumers against shoddy modular companies. Modulars have come a long way in the last 30 years though and Huntington has a good reputation on the island.

Having worked on some, I can tell its a modular if I'm in the basement (the seam), or because of some of the usual interior trim (railings, kitchen, etc). But once its done, its difficult to tell from the outside. You can ask some real estate agents as to how it being a modular affects resale value, but I've heard its not as significant as many think. The main thing is the quality of interior details, kitchen cabinets and counters, bath fixtures, etc. If that is upgraded (done on island), I've heard the value difference can be indistinguishable. Obviously that will add to the cost and whether that added expense balances out vs stick built is something you have to research, but a modular is something you might want to consider. I'm not affiliated with the company, its just that they have done the vast majority of modulars on Nantucket over the last 20+ years, at one point Nantucket being 2/3rds of their business, they know Nantucket very well. You might get a bit more scrutiny doing a modular in the historic district (upgrading to "true divided light" windows, for instance), but bottom line if it looks appropriate, it looks appropriate.

The $2.0-$2.5 million slot, which a finished 2 Camelia Ln would likely fit into (I would put the ask at $2.495M for a nice house here), has the least amount of inventory, at about 7.5 months. In Oct I figured the different price groups based on current inventory and sales the past 12 months, they are as follows (this is houses, not land, to give you an idea of how fast a finished home might sell):

$1.0-$1.5 - 11.5 months

$1.5-$2.0 - 10.8 months

$2.0-$2.5 - 7.4 months

$2.5-$3.0 - 11 months

$3.0-$3.5 - 20 months

$3.5-$4.0 - 25.5 months

$4.0-$4.5 - 15.2 months

$4.5-$5.0 - 21.3 months

$5.0-$5.5 - 12 months

$5.5-$6.0 - 32 months

$6.0-$7.0 - 17 months

$7.0-$8.0 - 24 months

As you can see, the busy $3 million-$6 million spec driven market is getting a bit crowded, while the $2.0-$2.5m is the sweet spot. I see a pretty good pattern that if you are doing a spec house in the upper range, do it in the lower 1/2 of whatever million you are targeting (nearly all listings are crammed at the upper limit of whatever million range they are in), it looks like it will sell in about 1/2 the time. I also saw a lot of projects in the last year's worth of HDC agendas that indicate the pipeline for these higher end types of homes is quite active, while the number of projects in the lower (1.5-2.5 Million) look weak when compared to the number of sales in the last year. If demand remains as it is, I can see upward price pressure in the sub $3M market as inventory dwindles, its already happening in the very scant under $1M market.

I'll probably do this again in July (a quick look 6/28 shows 31 months of inventory for all price ranges $3m and up) and see how the market looks but it doesnt make sense to do it in winter months because many listings expire and dont get relisted until later in the spring, leaving a "winter hole" that wouldnt present an accurate view of the market. I'll probably also do it again in Oct to get a year over year comparison whether or not I still own this because I'm such a nerd.

The next lot in town under ROH zoning presently for sale is at 7 Gardner St (portion) and is less than 1/2 the size of 2 Camelia, but is $201,000 more. I think once you see whats available, you will agree that 2 Camelia Ln represents good value when it comes to an increasingly scarce commodity, land in Nantucket "Town" (or anywhere on the island for that matter).

The only other lots under ROH zoning are the similarly sized (about 100sq ft smaller) lots on the busy corner of Easton and North beach St, at $1.2m and $1.3m (67 and 65 Easton St, respectively). This area is low and frequently floods during winter storms, which would make a full basement difficult (but an indoor swimming pool at high tide easy!). The listings for these lots expired and as of 6/28/16 they have not returned to market. Update 7/20/16 I have seen HDC agendas that mention a house on one of these lots. Since they have not sold, it appears either the owner is preparing to build or add the approved plans to the lot offering. I'd guess they are going to build based on the fact that I only saw plans for one of the lots.

An interesting nearby listing this spring is at 1 Gardner Perry Lane, an "L" (or flag) shaped lot located about 300 feet to the northwest of 2 Camelia. This used to belong to the Artist's Association. They held functions and art classes, etc here (it was a function/classroom space, not a house). They sold it for $845,000 on 12/20/13. The new owners have renovated the existing structure into a house, built a small cottage and added a pool. The striking thing about this is the price, $4,595,000! Looking at the documents, it totals about 2500 sq ft ground cover. In other words, you could build all those buildings on 2 Camelia. They are also renting it by the week in the summer, for only $20,500 ($24,500 in August, VRBO #690746). Several homes in the neighborhood rent from $5000-$6500/week...which would pay for about $1m worth of mortgage. A much higher than usual sale (or rental) in a neighborhood like this can give it a boost, as it gives legitimacy to higher prices, it says "thats possible here" and sometimes is a catalyst for significant neighborhood appreciation (this recently happened in Surfside, sorry too late to get in before the rush there). It will be interesting to see what happens with this listing, whoever did this is clearly bullish on this neighborhood. This listing has also expired but they are still marketing the rental, which appears booked. Listings like this frequently come back in the fall once all the rentals are complete. I dont know how you can simultaneously rent a property and have it for sale, telling a $24,000/week tenant to get out for a showing.

I go on about the "1 minute to the grocery store" thing, but think about it, how many times in a summer do you go grocery shopping, or any other business mid island? I didnt realize it until I worked on houses on the cliff side of town and had to go to the supply store on Old South Rd (kiss an hour goodbye) just how convenient being on the other side of Main St is, you skip all the New Lane/Quaker Rd/Prospect St/High School intersection traffic. Prices on this side of town are also about 1/2 of the cost of being on the "Cliff". This "south side of Town" benefit is only gaining in value with all the new construction on the cliff in the past 3 years, creating yet more traffic on the Quaker/Prospect thruway (PARKway is more like it in July and August).

If its just a gallon of milk you are after, its just a short walk down Back St and over to Cumberland Farms (which they are going to be rebuilding).

Assessments (New 2016 vs old):

Since many people compare prices with assessed value, it becomes important to know what you are looking at. "Old" (2015) sales of land compared to assessed value has been 149%. Using the old assessment for 2 Camelia ($554K) and the old 149% sale to assessed ratio would yield a price of $825,000. The new assessment (2016) is $646K and recent (YTD 2016) land sales have been 136% of assessed, which would yield a price of $878K for 2 Camelia. An asking price of $975,000 for this lot and a 90% offer would produce a sale of $878,000, right at the 136% of assessed average of the 43 lots sold over the last 9 months. 2 Camelia is priced at only 115.9% of assessed, which makes it $129K lower than recent average sales vs assessment would indicate. It is already at a 14.7% discount to market.

Make sure you know which assessment is being used in a listing, I've seen various combination of new and old in recent listings, although this is less common as time goes on. Also keep in mind that sales as a % of assessment will likely look to be less this year than last. This is NOT because of a weak market, it is because assessments rose (about 15% across the board, 2 Camelia rose 16.6%). Also the new assessment (2016) is based on the supposed value at Jan 1, 2015. This means using sales during the calendar year 2014! Thats like forever ago! So its already more than a year behind and is why assessments typically run behind current sales. If you go around making offers at assessed value you will not likely ever buy anything, its not 2009 anymore.

Sale to Assessed is a handy statistic to get a general feeling about how things are selling compared with assessments. HOWEVER with land you have to watch out for new lots that dont yet have a town assessment but are counted as sold at 100% of assessment on some (all) real estate agency's web sites. Since nearly all sales are actually above assessed (or what assessed will be), the actual present day sales prices of many of these new lots are above where the assessment would have been had these lots existed when the last assessment took place. In other words they would have been counted at more than 100%, so these "100% lots" are bringing the reported "sales to assessed" statistic down on land.

This is not reality. There is one site with a plain old clerical error reporting a lot sold at 39% of assessed when it was actually 152%. So if you look at some real estate sites you will notice the "sale to assessed" of land is lower than that of houses when its actually higher (136% vs 128%). What you really have to do is look at each lot, or type of lots, on their own merits. A new subdivision in an area of differing properties can be difficult to gauge, but if you use the "land cost to likely value" metric you can get a better idea of valuation. I suppose I'll just have to do my own analysis to get a clearer picture of the real "sales to assessed" for land....sigh.

Ok...here are the results. After looking at the last 9 months of land sales geared toward 2nd homes, not including the industrial lots out at the airport (although they are running about the same), the average sale to assessed for the 43 lots sold is 135.9%. There were only 3 lots I had to come up with an assessment for and they were pretty easy with comparable lots with assessments nearby. If I'm off by a little it wont skew the results much. Most lots that didnt have an assessment listed on realtor's web sites (and thus were counted as 100%) actually did have assessments, I just had to look them up. Anyway 135.9% of 2 Camelia's assessment of 646K is $877,914, or $128,914 higher than the present asking price.

Lots sold after I did this analysis include:

10 Weymouth (portion), $700,000, or 167% of a very likely assessment.

12 Scott's Way, $725,000, or 137% of assessment.

49 Hummock Pond/Hawthorne lane junk yard sold for $3.975M, or 135.4% of total assessments

6 N Cliff way, $3.112M, or 142%

3 Mary Ann Dr $365,000, or 150% (out by the airport)

Reminder: 2 Camelia Ln is priced at 116% of assessed.

Land cost vs likely final value is another way of comparing the cost of land to the "likely maximum value". Each neighborhood generally has a value range. Every lot in every area is not the same, but if you are comparing similar properties, this can give you an idea as to land values relative to their peers. Sometimes there are huge differences in value just a few hundred feet apart, or sometimes even adjoining if the zoning is different. Its just one of many comparative tools. Using the recent sales of 78 Pleasant and 13 Kimberly (which have R1 zoning, or only 30% ground cover), the land cost vs potential selling value of developed 2 Camelia Ln ($2.25M) would be 33.2%, which is lower than every single lot listed for sale below.

I am using a likely final value of $2.25M for 2 Camelia based on the sales of 78 Pleasant St and 13 Kimberly way. While these are very close by (78 Pleasant borders 2 Camelia) there is now a time factor, the 78 Pleasant sale was 18 months ago as of June, and the 13 Kimberly sale is now 2 1/2 years old. If anything, these homes would sell for more now than they did then. They certainly wouldnt sell for less, so I think it translates into a very reasonable estimate for the potential selling price of 2 Camelia Ln.

I got a number of questions on this, so I'll attempt to clarify. This 33.2% of "final value" I use here is 33.2% of a likely SELLING price. It is a way to gauge the land cost compared to the total final value once the house is completed. I would ask $2.495M for a nice ~2000-2500 sq ft house built here (there are 10 $2.5M houses on the market with an average sq footage of 2591 sq ft and avg 3.5 br and 3.2 ba). So if you see a new house come to market and can see the lot sold for 30% of the asking price of the house, that is in line with my asking price for the lot vs completed home asking price. The 33.2% figure I'm using is the price of the lot being 33.2% of the probable actual selling price of $2.25M for the house, which is based on a 90% offer from a $2.495M ask (78 Pleasant asking price was $2.35M, so it sold for 90.4% of ask). Recent sales have been about 95% of ask (which would equate to a $2.37M selling price from a $2.495M ask). At 78 Pleasant they also probably spent at least another $100K in finishing the basement (cutting holes in the foundation for egress windows, etc) along with other improvements after they bought it (it was a crew of guys there for months with a trailer, porta potty, using the lot next door for staging and parking, not a 2 week quickie paint job). in other words they were comfortable putting more into it than just the sale price. So I think its quite reasonable in setting a $2.25M final value selling price potential for 2 Camelia Lane (for a single house, a house and cottage combo might sell for more).

A few lots that have sold at a higher ratio are:

- 10 Weymouth St (portion) just (June 2016) sold for 41.1% of what the house next door just (same week) sold for.

-16 Ellens way lot sold for 44.69 % of the house at #12 sold for. This is a very apples to apples neighborhood with very similar lots and homes, probably the closest you will get to "cookie cutter" on Nantucket (they are nice cookies though!).

-21 Nanachumacke Ln sold for 60% of the average assessment of the 11 homes on the street. Since recent sales of homes have recently traded at 128% of assessed, this makes this sale 47.1% of probable actual street value.

-11R Union sold for 44% of its probable max value of $2.5M due to its mere 2278 sq ft lot size and using a nearly a dozen recent sales on the street as a guide.

-5 Long pond sold for 42.7% of what the house at 1 Long Pond just sold for.

-17 Deer Run sold for $1.275M in Aug 2015 which is 56.9% of the sale price of $2.24M the house at 18 Deer Run sold for in June 2016. These two lots are identical and the house was nice.

The average of the 6 examples above is 46.08% which would translate into a $1,036,800 selling price for 2 Camelia if this average were applied to a $2.25M final sale price at 2 Camelia Ln.

Distance measurements were made using Google Earth. Its pretty addicting, so dont say I didnt warn you (how far is it from the house you are in now to the house you grew up in?). (Click "tools" then "ruler", and select "path" if you are measuring anything thats not a straight line). I use it on a desktop, there is also an app for phones. The walking distance I measured from 2 Camelia to the Hub on Main St is 3864 feet, or 0.73 miles (14.5 min at 3 mph). Driving distance, because of one way streets, is 4584 ft, or 0.86 miles. If you are looking at real estate, I cant begin to tell you how handy Google Earth is!

As this started, it was mostly comps in the "in town" area since most of the people interested in this property have been looking for an in town location, but this has branched out since there is hardly any land in Town at all thats available. There are other lots in all areas of the island and I encourage you to look at those too because I believe 2 Camelia Lane compares well against those as well. Obviously if you are looking for 4 acres on the ocean, this isnt it, but if you are looking in Town, or are open to location, I think this represents a very competitive offering. Generally speaking you will get more land area per dollar the farther away from Town you get. Always check permissible ground cover, wetlands setbacks (Not a factor here), neighborhood values and comparable values. If the lot needs septic and a well, figure $30,000-35,000 more than town connection fees (Although water and town sewer lines are stubbed to the lot at 2 Camelia, you will still have connection fees, however they are MUCH less than installing a Title 5 septic and digging a well).

Other Lots For Sale

10 York St $895,000

This lot is listed on and off on Zillow by an off island broker that doesnt even have it on their own web site. So if you havent seen this on any Nantucket agency's web site, or in the LINK system, this is why. The adjacent lots have very close buildings on 3 sides, and York St on the 4th. It advertises being on a quiet street, but if anyone knows Nantucket, York St is one of the busiest cut thru streets on the island. Your driveway will also empty directly onto York St. If you go up York towards 5 Corners from Orange St, its on the left and looks like a small side yard. It is legal size, but has a very closed in feeling, go see for yourself. Recent sales on this part of York St have been solidly in the $ 1.3 million range, 20 York sold for $1.255m on 6/4/13 and 22 York sold for $1.275m on 1/14/15. 30 York sold in Oct 2015 for $1,295,000, and 26 York is presently for sale for $1.279m (update: under agreement 6/16/16). In other words 10 York's asking price is an extremely high 68.8% of a very well demonstrated neighborhood value. If this was priced the same as 2 Camelia's 33.2% land to final value, the asking price for this lot would be $432,755 (although the assessment is $640K, quite high in my opinion). Come to think of it, this means the assessor thinks this lot is worth 49.3% of the average street value, which would translate into $1.107M for 2 Camelia. 2 Camelia would be priced at $1,548,000 if it were priced at 58.8% of likely final value like this lot is. Y'all are welcome to write me a check for that! :)

86 Hummock Pond Rd $598K

Originally this lot was listed on Zillow by an off island broker whose website doesnt work and who's only listing was this listing on Zillow. It is now listed by an on island broker. The Zillow ad shows a proposed outline for a house, but beware this lot is listed on the Town's online "Property Record Card" as unbuildable with a scant $140,000 assessment. The listing says Town water and sewer "but not connected". Only recently did they add "Located in town water and sewer district, but not connected (awaiting infrastructure)" to the description. "Awaiting infrastructure" means it is indeed unbuildable until the sewer is extended. Being in the sewer district means nothing if the pipe aint there. You would need to contact the town to find out when (or IF) they plan on extending the sewer main to this address. This lot is NOT BUILDABLE until that happens. Water and sewer are stubbed to the lot at 2 Camelia, no need or expense to dig up Pleasant St. I'd put a potential final value of approximately $1.3M (if it was buildable) due to the location and wetlands limiting building envelope (so a 46% land to final value ratio at the current asking price (was 52.4% before recently being reduced). It doesnt matter what the zoning is here, the wetlands will severely limit what you can do. The listing says 1400 sq ft maximum available buildable envelope, so if you built a 2 story 2400 sq ft (full basement is doubtful here) modular for $275/sq ft your total investment would be $1.342M, so no profit or equity here. Its a 3 acre lot, but because of wetlands (which is nearly all of that 3 acres) there is a VERY small area where you can build...or even have a yard. Also depending on how wet the surrounding 3 acres are, this could be a mosquito haven in the summer. Also there is also a bit of a junk yard (which is licensed) as you neighbor to the rear (look on Google Earth, it is indispensable I'm tellin ya!), and also less than 1000 feet from this lot is a former junk yard where Pumpkin Pond Farm is now. This means you also want to make sure town water is available as well as sewer. To me this lot is unsellable at any price until the sewer line is extended and Town water availability is verified. This is not at all priced at a "wait and see till the sewer line is extended" kind of price (at the assessment it might be), it is priced high even if it was buildable today.

Aurora Lane Lots

This neighborhood is located on the other side of the junk yard you would see from the rear of 86 Hummock Pond Rd above. This is not the junk yard 1/4 mile away at 49 Hummock Pond that just sold for $3.975M, or the previous junk yard 1/3rd of a mile away that is now Pumpkin Pond Farm, it is the junk yard 250 feet out your back window from the lot at #15. #14 and #15 Aurora Way are on the market for $795,000 and $895,000 respectively. There are also 2 houses on this street for sale. #12 is on the market for $1.895M (under agreement as of 7/21/16) and is 2512 sq ft built in 2005. #11 is a brand new house for $1.995M. Aurora Way has covenants that limit you to one dwelling, a 1 car garage, and a max 2000 sq ft ground cover (regardless of the "50%" allowable one of the listings is telling you), 23 feet max height (instead of the usual 30 feet) for the house and 19 feet for the garage (400 sq ft ground cover limit for the garage). The listing for #11 first uses studio/garage, but then uses the word "cottage", which, if it goes by the covenants, cant be a dwelling When I think of the word cottage, I think small, but fully equipped kitchen, or in other words...dwelling. Anyway, the least expensive lot compared to the most expensive house asking price yields a 39.8% land to value ratio (the lowest ratio combo you can make). The 895K lot vs the 1.85M house is 48.3%(the highest combo you can make), so these lots are between 39.8% and 48.3% of final value compared with 2 Camelia's 33.2%.

Considering the prices and all the restrictions well beyond Town zoning, I think 2 Camelia compares VERY well against this development.

16 West York Lane $595,000

This nearby lot is what I find most people compare 2 Camelia Lane with, but it is in R1 zoning limiting you to an approximate 1584 sq ft footprint. Compare this with 2 Camelia Lane's 2550 sq ft max footprint. This gives 2 Camelia Ln a 61% larger footprint advantage.

Also, neighborhood values are in the $1.2-1.3M range. #9 just sold (Feb 2016) for $908,500 in an off-market transaction (off market home transactions are frequently in-family sales, so they may be lower than average). Here the land cost to final value ($1.3m) is 45.7%. If you are looking at the land cost per buildable sq ft, 2 Camelia is $294 and this lot is $348. In order for this lot to equal the 33.2% land to value ratio that 2 Camelia represents, the price would have to be $431,600 (although assessment is 525K, which kind of says the assessor is thinking this 40% land to value ratio is appropriate, which if applied to 2 Camelia would make it worth $908,653). Also if 2 Camelia were priced at this ratio of 45.7% it would be $1,028,250. So when comparing it to 2 Camelia if you consider the difference in zoning (up to 3100 sq ft more house and cottage) and the $1M difference in neighborhood potential value, more private location, is 2 Camelia worth $154,000 more than 16 West York Ln? Yes! I think it is! Very much so since you are getting that extra $1M in final value potential for only 15% land cost.

7 Gardner St (portion) $950,000

Update! 9/1/16 both the house and lot are under contract.

This 2396 sq ft spin-off of 7 Gardner is closer to downtown, but is less than 1/2 the size of 2 Camelia Ln, thus your allowable footprint (ground cover) is also less than 1/2. Your land cost per sq ft of allowable ground cover is $808 here vs 2 Camelia's $293. This street is very busy during the summer and your front door will be just feet from it. It is also very narrow with cars driving up on the sidewalk to pass each other making some of the traffic like one foot from your front stoop. It is close to town (1677 feet to the Hub), so it gets some points for that.

Also if you compare the $1.995M asking price of the original antique house next door to the price of the subdivided lot, you get a 47.6% land to probable value ratio (applying this ratio to a $2.25M sale on 2 Camelia would yield a $1.071M land price). A $2.86M sale would be required on this lot in order for the $950K land cost to equal 33.2% like 2 Camelia.

10 Weymouth St (Portion) $890,000

Update! Sold! $700,000. 167% of estimated assessed value (using the average per sq ft assessments of the other 3 undersized lots on this street), or 41.1% of probable potential value (using the house this was split off from which also sold for $1.7M this week 6/15/16), and $243.31 per sq ft (2 Camelia is $146.77). It has 1111 sq ft less allowable ground cover than 2 Camelia, which could translate into more than 3000 fewer sq ft of potential living space. 2 Camelia is 2226 sq ft, or 77%, bigger. In other words those 3,000 sq ft of extra living space would have only cost them $16.66 per sq ft land cost had they paid the extra $50,000 for 2 Camelia.

This 2877 sq ft spinn-off of 10 Weymouth St is also closer to downtown, but like the 7 Gardner lot above, is limited in its allowable ground cover. Their ground cover cost is $486 per sq ft before you start building (if you max it out, which is more likely on a 1/2 sized lot). Recent sales on this group of streets have been in the $1.5m range. For a recent comp, #11 Weymouth across the street sold in Feb 2016 for $1.485m This lot is also undersized at 3315 sq ft, so similar to the spun off lot at #10. If 10 Weymouth were priced at the same 33.2% of likely final value that 2 Camelia is (using a $1.7M likely final value gleaned from the new more recent sale next door), the price for this lot would have been $564K. This sold for 41.1% of probable sales value, which would translate to $926,000 if applied to 2 Camelia.

5 Joy St $1,495,000

This lot is larger, but so is the price! If allowable footprint is important to you, this lot affords you 3391 sq ft, or 841 sq ft more than 2 Camelia Ln. But you will pay $887 per sq ft for every one of those extra sq feet of buildable area. Total cost per buildable sq ft is $441 here vs 2 Camelia's $293. It is a 873 foot shorter walk to Town, but that will cost you $854 for each foot.

UPDATE! (July 6th) Just listed as a soon to be completed (fall '16) 5br 5+ bath 4250 sq ft home for $3.995M, which is a 37.4% land to value ratio at the ASKING price (which means this ratio will likely be a little higher at the SELLING price--41.5% at a 90% of asking price offer). 37.4% of my estimated selling price of $2.25M for 2 Camelia would be $841,500 (at 41.5% it would be $933,375).

59 Westchester St $1,495,000

*Accepted Offer 5/17/16*** SOLD $1.45M 9/2/16

This 10020 sq ft (.23 ac) lot gives you about twice the space as 2 Camelia for twice the price. You dont get twice the ground cover, however. Under R1 zoning (30% ground cover) the buyer only got 456 sq ft more ground cover (for $1537 per additional sq ft) than 2 Camelia. This sold for $144.71 per sq ft (2 Camelia is $146.77) and $482 per sq ft of buildable ground cover (2 Camelia is $293.55). 59 Westchester is a 267' longer walk to the Hub on Main St than 2 Camelia.

Also for sale is a .36 ac (15,681 sq ft) lot at 65 West Chester St for $2.1M. It is listed with Great Point Properties and they smartly point out on their Facebook page that it has 2 nearby $5M+ (completed home) sales to compare against. This is priced at $133.92 per sq ft of land and $446.40 per sq ft of ground cover.

Nearby (Brooks Farm actually borders both 61 and 65 West Chester) completed home comps are 2 Brooks Farm (.24ac or 10,454 sq ft lot) which sold in May 2016 for $5.225M (#65's $2.1 price equals 39.6% land to value here- which would be $891K if applied to 2 Camelia) and 1 Brooks Farm (.39ac or 16,988 sq ft lot) which sold in Aug 2016 for $5.3M (also a 39.6% land to value so also $891K if applied to 2 Camelia).

If this lot at #65 were priced at the same 33.2% ratio as 2 Camelia, its price would be $1.76M. It will be interesting to see what it ends up selling for. These lots are all on the other side of all the Quaker/Prospect, etc to mid island traffic jams. Despite that, this is a hot area lately, with 4 Pilgrim being sold 2 times in 3 weeks located only about 100 feet away.

A new listing at 61 West Chester just came on the market (8/26) for $3.565M (181% of assessed). It is a 3125 sq ft 3 bed 3 ba cape on a 12,632 sq ft lot built in 1992 and renovated in 2015.

A house at #53 Westchester (4br/3.5ba on a smaller 6943 sq ft lot) sold for $2.45 M in Feb 2016, right at the $2.5M assessment. They could probably make a decent profit now, just 7 months later.

78 Madaket Rd lots $895,000-$1,195,000 (4 lots)

2 of these lots have been sold, lots 2 and 4, which makes now it impossible to buy 2 adjacent lots. Both lots sold the same day for $937,500 each which tells me the buyer is a spec builder, otherwise why not buy 2 adjacent lots?

These lots headed out to Madaket are large, but watch out for wetlands setbacks, which could push your house (and septic system) closer to the road than you might like. Madaket Rd can be busy at times, especially on Sundays as it is the road to the dump, which every landscaping truck, every garbage truck, and every "Take It Or Leave It" shopper takes.

Add $25,000-30,000 for a septic system as this area is not sewered. A walk to the Hub is a 1700 foot longer trek, but you do have the bike path right in front. Be advised though, you also have to cross this bike path every time you enter and leave, so be careful since many bicyclists are "on vacation" if you get my drift. These lots do have nice views to the rear, but it is a large privately owned parcel. While there are no present plans for development (though these lots are owned by the same family as the large parcel, so they are open to selling part of it...), it is not protected and could some day be developed. The protected part they talked about in the listing is across Madaket Rd which was part of Sea Pony Farm which was protected by a Land Council covenant which has now been bought by the Land Bank. Its a nice view...in between the garbage trucks going by :)

Update 8/2/16 I see HDC plans in the making for the 2nd of these lots. Unknown what the plans are for the 2 unsold lots, they are not presently listed, which may have been a contingency in the sale of the first 2 lots.

The first house (to be completed by Jan 2017) just came on the market (8/26) for $5.295M. I can see why they bought separated lots. The aerial picture shows the house and a bunch of room to either side. The thing is, that bunch of room to either side is other lots, and is not included in your $5.295M and at some point will mean banging hammers on both sides of you. The spec market seems to think there is an unlimited supply of people with $5M burning a hole in their pocket, and so far they arent crazy.

5 Pilgrim Rd lots $795,000 ea.

Update! Nov 2015 all 5 lots sold in 1 transaction for $3.6 Million.

Update again! 9/1/16 the 2 front lots have been listed as one subdividable lot for $2.495M. This leaves the back 3 lots which can now only be 2, which the owner could probably market for $3M, which means a probable total take of $5M from a $3.6M investment less than a year ago. Compare this with the $2.05M sale of this whole property on 1/10/14 and there is already $3M in profit in about 2 1/2 years without so much as digging a hole, pretty amazing.

These 5 similarly sized lots might have seemed inexpensive for the cliff side of town (they were listed at 795K each at one time which is why I started following them) but carry R1 zoning which means they each have about 1000 sq ft less ground cover (916-1047 sq feet depending on which lot). The new listing of 2 lots put together (total of 13,078 sq ft) has a combined ground cover of about 3923 sq ft, or 1373 sq ft more ground cover than 2 Camelia but it will cost you $1271 per sq ft because of the $1,746,000 price difference. It is interesting that they are giving enough space to this new lot that it precludes the remaining lot to be divided into 3 lots. In other words they are making this whole property a maximum of 4 lots instead of 5. It is obvious this investor thinks there is more value here in fewer, but larger lots and I agree. But, at $2.495M, it is 47% of the $5.3M final value sales we saw recently on Brooks Farm which is only a few Hundred feet away.

Also a similarly dividable property at 9 Pilgrim Rd has an accepted (5/12/16) offer from a 2.95M ask after being on the market for 15 days Since this is likely being bought for the land, this and the 5 Pilgrim Rd lots, as well as the Pilgrim Ct lots (old Toscana property) signify a significant buildup of this once edge-of-town rural area (that has to all go through the New Lane -Quaker -Prospect -High School traffic gauntlet to get to the mid island area).

4 pilgrim Rd $1,195,000

*Update June 2016 this lot was sold at its asking price*

**Update Update! 17 days later this lot sold again for $1.6M!!! **

This sold for 152% of its $785,300 assessment (which would be $981,920 in the case of 2 Camelia). Then it sold for 203% of assessed 17 days later (which would be $1.316M for 2 Camelia) This is interesting because although it is a little larger than the 5 Pilgrim lots, the zoning is different which makes the allowable footprint the same as the 5 Pilgrim lots (which is 1000 sq ft less than 2 Camelia). It sold for $475,000 more than each of the 5 Pilgrim lots, which are directly across the street. Thats some hefty difference! The second sale is $851,000 more than 2 Camelia's price even though it has 40% lower allowable ground cover. Yikes!

Located right across the street from the 5 Pilgrim Rd lots, 4 Pilgrim Rd is a triangle shaped lot in R2 zoning allows for 1500 sq ft of ground cover, giving 2 Camelia Ln a 1000 sq ft ground cover advantage (2,000 sq ft in a 2 story house, etc, etc)... along with a $446,000 price advantage. Because it is triangle shaped, the 30ft front setback and 10ft side setbacks dictate where your house will be. Like the Pilgrim Rd lots above, you are also stuck in the New Lane/Quaker/Prospect/High School traffic quandry like every other house on the cliff when traveling to the mid island area (Yes! I'm going to mention this every time, and if you buy on this side of town you will be sitting in traffic remembering me droning on about it, then you will wonder why you spent twice as much to be on the "cliff side" of town even though you arent anywhere near the cliff).

Looking at the new listing at nearby 5 Pilgrim Court which is a 2916 sq ft home with a detached garage with total ground cover of 2915 sq ft (1400 sq ft more than is allowed on 4 Pilgrim) on a larger lot priced at $3.495M, I'd put 4 Pilgrim's max price at about $3M only because people love to pay more to sit in traffic on Quaker and Prospect streets and at the High School intersection. At the first sale of $1.195M the land to value ratio is 39.8%. which would translate to $896,250 if applied to a $2.25M sale at 2 Camelia. The 2nd sale of $1.6M would be 53.3% of $3M, which would translate to $1.199M at 2 Camelia. I'm totally sending both these buyers a brochure!

You dont believe me! The pic below was taken July 9 2016 by my lawn guy on Quaker Rd (this is facing toward Main St, the street up on the right is Vestal St). He has 350 feet of backup behind him and 550 feet in front of him (Google Earth again, I'm tellin ya!). This is after getting through the backup at Prospect and Milk St. I lived on Nantucket for 21 years, its like this every summer and gets worse every summer.

Your travel time to Town will be similar from 2 Camelia, but in recent years, fewer and fewer "day to day" businesses are located in Town, and more in the mid island area making it a more important part of the island than in decades past. You can brave the Stop n Shop (locals call it Stop n Rob) downtown, but keep in mind in addition to the downtown parking issue is that all the boats in the Boat Basin use that store. The downtown parking issue also comes into play with the regular businesses that still exist, like the pharmacy and post office, its just easier to do it mid island...if you can get there, that is. 2 Camelia is literally one minute and 10 seconds from the mid island Stop n Rob, or the pharmacy across the street (or Dan's which is even closer). Or its is a 5-10 minute walk, to the world famous Chicken Box, or Seagrill, Kitty's, Bank of America, Nantucket Bank etc, and my favorite, the Downey Flake!

2A Winn St $1,395,000

Not far from where the picture above was taken (ahead off to the left), this slightly larger lot comes at a much larger price. This .19 acre lot in R1 zoning has nearly identical allowable footprint of 2500 sq ft. This property abuts 5 acres of open space (Quaker Cemetery to the rear, they are pretty quiet). A walk to the Hub is 129 feet closer but it will cost you more than $5007 per foot (thats $417 per INCH). You could build a lot of house with that $646,000 difference. In OCT 2015 #6 Winn St (5br/5ba, 5160 sq ft house (finished basement), .18ac lot) sold for $2.9 Million. Since the lots are comparable, 2A's asking price represents 48.1% of #6's selling price. Another angle to look at, if you take #6 selling price of $2.9M, subtract 2A's asking price of $1.395M and then divide that by the sq footage of the house at #6 (5160), you get $291 per sq ft on a SELLING price basis for #6. This means thats what you might get by buying #2A and building the same 5160 sq ft house that the market has recently said is worth $2.9M at #6. In other other words, if the $1.395 asking price for #2A makes sense, then so must the $291/sq ft for #6 on a SALE basis. I dont think thats reasonable at all, only a stock modular would get near that. If we take the $445/sq ft selling price that we get from 1 Long Pond as an example, the needed selling price becomes $3,691,200 (nearly $800,000 more) for the same house as #6. If we take the 33.2% factor of 2 Camelia and apply it here we would need a sale price of $4,201,807 for the land cost to equal the same ratio that 2 Camelia Ln represents, a full $1.3 Million above a recently demonstrated market value a few doors down. You might be able to get a little more out of this spot than that 8 month old $2.8M sale at #6, but I dont think $1.3M more.

Update: A newly built 5 br 5 3/2 ba (thats 3 half baths) 5100 sq ft home at 6.5 Winn St just came on the market in early July for $3.495M. The asking price of this lot at 2A would be 40% of a full price offer for this house, or 44.3% of a 90% offer ($3.145M, a more likely scenario). 44.3% of the probable sale of $2.25M at 2 Camelia is, you guessed it, right at $1M (OK $996,750).

6, 9, 12 Hydrangea Ln Sconset

$719,000-819,000

Update! 4/15/16 #12 has an accepted offer. UPDATE again: SOLD for $640,000! Thats pretty lowball! I dont know whats going on with this street, maybe its just 2 isolated incidents of apparently very eager sellers, I dont know. However lowball this seems though, 640K is 32% of the streets (barely maybe) $2m potential, thats pretty dang close to 2 Camelia's 33.2%, isnt it?

Update (8/16/16) : The lot at #9 has been reduced to $669K from $719Km and is also being offered as a package deal with the lot at #6 for $1.269M (or $634,500 each). If you have 2 adjacent lots for a package deal thats one thing, but across the street from each other? This along with the low sale of the house at #8 for $1.65M and with the lowball sale of the lot at #12 for $640K does not bode well for this street. I originally used this street as a comp of a $2M neighborhood because of the 11/25/14 sale of #5 for $2.075M, but these 4 recent developments on a street with only 14 lots make it difficult to call this a $2M potential neighborhood anymore. This is what can happen if you buy on a street with the majority of lots still owned by the developer when the developer decides to unload (this original parcel was bought for $6M on 1/12/05 so they are 11+ years into it). Sometimes a developer will sell the lots off over time, but its not usually 11 years. The fact there are still this many vacant lots on this "new" street after 11 years also says something about its desirability.

All this hasnt stopped the owners of #2 Hydrangea from putting their house on the market for $2.495M! Since this is the first house on the left, it also borders Milestone Rd, so you have traffic noise to consider. As far as dead end roads (Cul De Sacs) like this, I prefer to be on the end of the road, not the beginning like this is, lots less traffic both from the lane itself and whatever the intersecting street is. To me, this is one of the two least desirable lots in the development.

Think about this if you have any inclination to look at one of the 37 massively overpriced Cannonbury Lane lots that just came on the market. As far as Hydrangea Ln goes, this will all eventually wash out, so if you have a longer time horizon (3-5 yrs my guess), these lots might end up being a deal (lots of Nantucket ends up being a deal after 5 years though!). The Cannonbury story is completely different. Unless you are buying one of the very last lots at a 2/3rds discount, I would stay away, just my opinion.

There is also a similar scenario on Ellens Way in Miacomet 14 out of the 19 lots are still vacant and owned by the developer, plus one house built by the developer is for sale, in addition to 2 out of 3 of the other houses also for sale. If I'm right that leaves just one house and one lot not either presently listed or owned by the developer.

Also on Hydrangea, zoning restricts you to an approx 1000 sq ft smaller footprint than 2 Camelia Ln. This means a 2000 sq ft difference on a 2 story house, or about 2700 sq ft if the basement is finished, or 3200 sq ft difference if you finish 4 levels. That can be a LOT less house! While this area has views across the golf course, etc, you need to like WIND to live here, as it is wide open with no sheltering foliage. When taking the zoning difference into account, in addition to the recent negative price movements (only place on the island I see that happening), I think 2 Camelia is a much more attractive opportunity.

Recent Sales

Most of these are within the past 2 years or so. Keep in mind, though, there is a world of difference between 2013 and 2016.

1 Long Pond

This lot sold in Sept of 2014 for $550,000, which was 139.8% of the 2014 assessment. Also dont forget to add $30K more for septic so an effective $580K total cost. This came on the market as a 2792 sq ft completed spec home for $1.995M. It sold pretty quickly on 2/10/16 for $1.825M (91.4% of ask, he would probably do a little better today). This is a very interesting example as it gives an idea as to stick built construction costs. At the asking price it was $506 per sq ft (asking price minus land cost (accounting for the $30K septic cost), divided by the sq footage of the home), and at the selling price it was $445/sq ft. This does not include the small 1 car garage and landscaping, etc, so the house itself was actually a little less, but this $445 is a good figure to work with.

If you google "link listing sheet, 1 long pond rd" it is the first match, nice house!

Figuring this was sold at a profit, this obviously means it was built for less than $445 per sq foot otherwise he wouldnt have called me asking about my lot to build another house! He (smartly, I think) specializes in homes around 2000-2500 sq ft and around $2M , but seemed a little apprehensive about my lot being $200K ($170K effective when considering septic) more than the last lot he bought, even though the asking price of the house would be $500K more and selling price likely $425K more. Still he would have had to pay an effective $170K more (200k higher price minus the 5 BR septic that was included in the 750K price at #5) anyway for the similar lot at 5 Long Pond which would have likely yielded a similar $1.8-2.0M sale as 1 Long Pond did. So in reality 2 Camelia is priced the same in this market but for a probable $425K higher selling price.

The only other lot in the $550K range is on North point (now under agreement) for 579K (add 30K for septic), which is located in a pretty solidly $1.5M and under neighborhood of Warrens Landing. The likely sale here would be $750K less than the likely selling price for 2 Camelia and would represent a land to value of 40.6%. 2 Camelia would be an effective $140K higher land cost (when accounting for septic thats needed here, but not at 2 Camelia) for a $750K higher selling price, indicating a mere 18.7% land to extra value ratio for the difference in land price and selling price when comparing the two lots.

The 1 Long Pond lot cost (plus septic cost) was 31.8% of the final sale of $1.825M, but it was a 2014 land sale and a 2016 home sale. He is going to have a very difficult time replicating that in this market, which is indicative of what every other spec builder is facing, especially in the $2M-ish finished end of the market since 80% of available lots are over $1M.

A $2.355M SALE (I have been suggesting a $2.495 ask and $2.25M sale in today's market) at 2 Camelia would be required in order for the $749K land cost to equal the same effective 31.8% (when considering septic costs) he paid at 1 Long Pond. A $2.355M sale may be entirely reasonable by the time 2 Camelia is completed, if not right now. Remember the asking price for 78 Pleasant St was $2.350M 1 1/2 years ago and the selling price of $2.125M. A selling price of $2.355M at 78 Pleasant St a year from now would represent a 10.8% appreciation over 2 1/2 years not accounting for the quieter more private location and the 500 sq ft more available ground cover 2 Camelia has. Thats very reasonable I think.

So while he might see this as representing a bigger percentage of the final sale as his last project, it is actually extremely close when considering both the 2 year time factor of the land sale plus another year until the project is completed and marketed. Also when considering all the recent land sales in the 40-47% range, 2 Camelia's price is extremely reasonable not only in today's market, but even 2-3 years ago.

The lot at 5 Long Pond sold in Sept 2015 for $750,000 (159.5% of assessed, which would be $1.027M for 2 Camelia). This lot (at #5) included a 5 bedroom septic, which gives it about a $40K advantage #1 didnt have, so in reality it sold for about $160K more, or 29% more than the sale at #1 only one year earlier. Quite a price jump there for a one year period, similar to the jump we see in Naushop below.

71 Goldfinch Dr $1.299M

This is a 6 bedroom, 5 bath home in Naushop, which is a development off Old South Rd. This is another good example we can use to calculate approximate construction costs, this time of Huntington modulars. This lot sold for $460,000 in May of 2015 (130% of assessed). Subtracting the lot cost from the asking price, then dividing that by the sq footage (2967) we get $283 sq ft on a asking price basis. The land cost also represents 35.3% of the asking price, a bit higher than 2 Camelia's 30% of a $2.495M ask. Remember asking price vs selling price are usually a little different, the 33.2% I use is for my estimated SELLING price of 2 Camelia. A 95% offer of the $1.299M ask would be $1.235M, which would equate to a 37.2% land to final (selling) value.

Also in Naushop for $1.3M is another 6 Bed 5 Bath 4000 sq ft home at 7 Bluebird Ln built by the same builder as 71 Goldfinch above. Looking at town records revealed they also bought a third lot, 53 Goldfinch for $470K (133% of assessed) on 4/30/15. (7/29/16 I see they are before HDC for putting a Huntington modular on this lot also) Then the lot next door at #55 sold for $512,500 (145% of assessed) to someone different 3 months later on 7/31/15. 2 Camelia is presently priced at 116% of assessed. The builder got this lot (7 Bluebird) on 10/17/13 for only $300,100. Notice the difference in price of these comparable lots 18 months apart! The 2nd lot cost 50% more! Then the lot at #55 sold for 70% more! This house works out to $325 per sq ft on an asking price basis. Whats significant is that the builder had the confidence to buy 2 more lots at a much higher prices and build a 2nd and 3rd house. He did build a smaller house on the 2nd one though, but has the same asking price on both. This first house has a finished basement (which is usually the cheapest "addition" you can build but usually doesnt add that much to the value), which may explain the sq ft difference in the 2 houses, otherwise these 2 houses look very much alike. $1.3M is at the top of what houses in Naushop are selling for, so we will see what happens with these.

16 Ellens way $1,200,000 (OCT '15)

Since the lots on this road are very comparable (and the houses very similar), the recent sale of a house at 12 Ellens Way (Sept 2015) at $2.625 Million puts #16's $1.2M (180% of assessed) selling price (only a month apart) at 44.69% of #12's selling price. A 44.69% ratio applied to 2 Camelia would yield a price of $1,005,525.

Now a little closer to home...

78 Pleasant St $2,125,000

This beautiful Mickey Roland designed 2415 sq ft home sold in January 2015 and borders 2 Camelia for about 15 feet in the rear. The new owners are finishing the basement for additional living space (in other words probably spending another $100K, there was a crew of guys, vehicles, construction trailer, porta potty there for about 6 months, so it wasnt a little paint job). I would think all things being equal, this would have sold for more were it on 2 Camelia given 2 Camelia's comparatively more private location and superior ground cover allowance (78 Pleasant is R1 (30%) and 2 Camelia is ROH (50%). There is also now a time factor as this sale is 18 months old (as of July 2016).

13 A&B Kimberly Way

This main house and cottage combo sold 2 1/2 years ago in January of 2014 for $2.1 Million. Kimberly way is located just to the south of Camelia Lane and this property is within 70 feet of 2 Camelia. Because the house and cottage are on different sides of the end of the street, this was great for 2 separate vacation rentals, but took a while to sell, I think in part because of the timing, and also because of the somewhat unorthodox setup.

There also seems to be something about the properties the (now former) owner has developed that seems to make them difficult to sell. This was the same owner as the 2 houses (that are inseparable, maybe that was it) at 5 corners that just finally sold in January after being on the market for 3,276 days (nearly 9 years!) as well as the "Barn" at 31 York St (3,450 days and counting....Update! Accepted offer on 7/25/16 after being on the market 9 years 6 months and 10 days!). I've been in the barn and its nice, I guess, but not at all "Barny". All these places have been GREAT rentals, though, which has made the waiting not only bearable, but profitable. I have seen difficult to sell properties be great rentals in the past. People are more geared toward bedrooms and proximity (to beach or town) when they rent for a week or 2 and not the overall feel and layout that someone is more concerned with when buying. Odd places might not sell well, but may be great rentals.

80 Pleasant St

This vacant lot, which really appears on Kimberly Way directly abuts 2 Camelia Ln to the north, and 13 Kimberly to the east, and 78 Pleasant to the west. It is in R1 zoning (30% ground cover) and sold for $650,000 in Sept of 2005.

8R Back St $1,650,000

Sold on 9/9/14, the new owners are doing an extensive (going on 2 years!) renovation. You will never be finished if you keep changing you mind! (You will never stop spending money either if you dont stop changing your mind...)

107R Orange St $1,625,000

This 2164 sq ft 4 br 3.5 ba spec house had an accepted offer in one day and sold on 10/11/13. This was one of the signs that things were starting to turn around in the Nantucket real estate market (it always starts with a few first steps and this was one of them). As I remember the asking price was $1.8M so only a 85.5% sale to ask. Things really had not got going again yet and I think this investor was perhaps still a bit skittish and was happy to get an immediate offer. The lot sold for $500K on 7/31/12 after being on the market several years, so a 30.7% land to final value for this 3 year old sale (and 4 year old land sale).

103C Orange St $1,051,500

Sold on 9//9/14, cute post and beam 1 Br 1 Ba freestanding condo on the corner of Orange and Back st. This rents for $3000/week (VRBO #3866653ha)

8 Prospect St $710,000 3/11/14
8 Prospect was listed as land but contains a 1940s cottage. This is located directly on one of the busiest streets in town and does not provide the sense of seclusion that Camelia Lane does. The buyer of this lot will want to engineer a driveway that allows turning around. Backing out on to Prospect St would be a good way to "meet Jesus" as the saying goes. It was advertized as able to add a main house, but so far the new owners have stuck with just fixing up the cute 1940's cottage.

7 Gardner Perry Lane $1,495,000

This 1655 sq ft home sold at ask July 2013 after being on the market only a week. Located 500 feet away, it is important to note the R1 zoning on Gardner Perry may limit expansion plans the new owner may have (this lot has about 850 sq ft less allowable ground cover than 2 Camelia Ln). Taking the assessed value of the structure off the selling price leaves $838,600 remaining.

6 Coon St $750,000

In town Historic District lot located 850 feet away (as the crow flies) to the northeast, sold in May 2013 for $750,000. I noticed the house next door at #8 sold 4 times in the last 10 years and is an interesting study of the market and how it has come back. It also illustrates the value of 2 Camelia quite considerably.

$2.55M on 9/7/06

$1.8M on 3/12/10 (Ouch!)

$2.0M on 3/15/13

$2.7M on 11/4/14

Incidentally, since these 2 lots (6 and 8) are basically identical, the May 2013 sale of this lot, compared with the $2.0M March 2013 sale of the house next door yields a land vs final value ratio of 37.5%, a little higher than 2 Camelia's 33.2%. Present assessment is $4000 less than 2 Camelia (old assessment is also $4000 less). I would give Coon St a few points for being closer to Town, but then take some away some for being on a one way street which forces you onto Orange St which is a one way OUT of Town, which makes driving to Town about the same. 2 Camelia is only a 400 ft longer drive (which is about 13.6 seconds at 20mph), but walking is 1189 feet shorter (about 4.5 min) for 6 Coon because you can walk up Orange the "wrong way". Camelia Lane gets points for being more shady and private. Otherwise these lots are very comparable. The May 2013 sale of 6 Coon was 135% of assessment at the time. 135% of 2 Camelia's assessment at that time (the old $554K assessment), nearly 3 years ago now, would be $752,443, which is in line with my PRESENT DAY price. 6 Coon rents for $10,000 per week in Jul/Aug and as of April 1 is booked for those 2 months (VRBO #688150). This house is also a Milton (Mickey) Rowland design like 78 Pleasant St.

1 Spring St Sold for $450,000

Interesting lot spun off of 1 Spring St. This is an undersized .07 acre (3223 sq ft) lot located in the Flood Zone (forget a full basement). Next there is an easement (647 sq ft of your 3223 sq ft, leaving 2576 sq ft for the owner) that allows the neighbor a driveway to his garage, part of which is also on your lot! I dont know if that counts as ground cover, but if it does, subtract the 265 sq ft from the already low 1611 sq ft leaving only 1346 sq ft available for your house. 2 Camelia Ln can have a 85% bigger house, not even counting the basement you cant even dig at 1 Spring St.

11R Union St $1,100,000

This lot sold in March of 2016 for $1.1M ($482.88 per sq ft vs 2 Camelia's $146.77/sq ft). Your land cost per sq ft of ground cover here is $965 (yikes!) vs 2 Camelia's $293.

*Update: The original house this lot was spun off from just came on the market (7/13) for $2.995M. Their dump bill must have been high because it doesnt look like there is anything left of the original house even though the original 1844 date the house was built is mentioned in the first sentence of the listing. Also just because mustard yellow is an approved HDC trim color doesnt mean you have to use it. It is done in a more modern fashion like many spec houses on the market, which is not to my taste (could ya tell? haha), but thats just my opinion. It is not as bad as some "insane asylum white" spec houses I see lately (these make me look for the nice young men in their clean white coats...coming to take me away...), but it certainly doesnt say antique Nantucket either. In the front photo you can see the house at 11R is under construction. Doing that during the summer must be a parking nightmare. Having just walked by, #9 is undergoing a renovation at the same time. This adds even more to the already impossible parking situation.

This tiny 2278 sq ft lot at 11R was spun off of 11 Union under a provision in the zoning code "81L" that allows you to subdivide a lot if there were 2 structures on the lot for the past 50 years (also see 7 Gardner and 10 Weymouth).

The unrestored antique main house next door, which originally included this lot, sold for for $1.413M on 2/12/14, which means their net cost for the original house at 11 Union is now just $313,750 (thats practically free as far as Nantucket goes!). Since they renovated the death out of the old house, it probably cost the same as a completely new house. So this $313,750 is basically their "vacant" lot cost, which is $786,000 less than what the buyers of 11R just paid. It doesnt take a genius to figure who's going to make the money here. Although the main house is now only on a 2522 sq ft lot (it was undersized already at 4800 sq ft before being subdivided), when you add everything up, this will turn out to be a great investment for them, mostly due to the high sale price of this lot. I say high because there are numerous comps on this street that dont support a land value such as this. Final value most likely wont be much more (if at all) than 2 Camelia. It scores major points though for walkability to Town (its is only a 450 foot walk to lower Main St and 917 feet to the Hub) but is severely limited due to the size of the lot (house size, 1 parking space, tiny back yard patio area for a "yard"). Other things to consider are traffic backups going into Town in the summer will mean idling cars 10 feet from your front door for much of the summer. Also the lot backs up to Orange St hill (Long Hill as its called) which is to the west, which means your sunset is hours before other areas of the island. But, if close to Town is tops on your list, this scores very high. A much quieter comp would have been 14 Liberty St which recently sold for $2.4M. Almost identical walking distance on a MUCH quieter side street (not a main artery) leading out of Town.

Other comps on Union St itself are:

-9 Union, next door, sold $1.7M 9/26/14 2519 sq ft home on 3600 sq ft lot, good condition (was owned by a builder), now being renovated.

-18 Union, sold $1.795 1/17/15, 2754 sq ft home on 4398 sq ft lot (see below for what they did to this!)

-20 Union $3.5M 9/22/15 a 4997 Sq Ft home on 12,632 sq ft lot (5.5 times the lot size of 11R, lots of expansion options here including possible subdivision)

-19 Union, $2.1M 1/8/16, 3523 sq ft home with the only indoor pool in downtown Nantucket that I know of, on a conforming 5039 sq ft lot.

-23 Union $1.35M 10/17/14, 1995 sq ft home on 4356 sq ft lot.

-26 Union $3.475M 10/23/15 3113 sq ft completely renovated (2015) home on a 6534 sq ft lot (2.86 times the size of 11R).

-23A Union Sold in April 2016 for $2.6M Its a 3305 Sq Ft home on a conforming 5227 Sq Ft lot.

As you can see, higher sales prices are possible on this street, but they are on much bigger lots. The smaller lots, which this is even smaller than those, seem to bring around $2M. Even if they can get $3M for it (you never know!), that would equate to $472.90 per sq ft (or $27.90/sq ft over the $445 we saw at 1 Long Pond), or a profit of $101,970 not including other expenses. Not much margin there. A sale of $3,131,000 (or 95% of a $3.295M ask) would be required to make the $1.1M land sale equal to 33.2% of the final selling price.

With the asking price of the newly renovated original house next door starting at $2.995M, maybe they can do it if they dont do it in mustard yellow trim! Obviously not every lot has to be 33.2% but this looks like it will end up being more than that, I'm just illustrating the relative value of 2 Camelia. I think a realistic selling price for this (and also the renovated original house) is around $2.5M, which would make this $1.1M lot sale 44% of final value. This is a very difficult area for construction due to its close in Town location on a busy narrow street with lots of traffic and limited (and timed in the summer) parking, and virtually no room on the lot itself for tradesmen's vehicles, etc. Builders (smart ones anyway) will take this into consideration when responding to bids. It doesnt make it impossible, but it does make it a pain in the...and with the simultaneous renovation of 9 Union going on, a really big pain in the......

On the left is the nearly completed reno of the original 11 Union and on the right 11R is under construction.

Either a family home or rental income (awesome spot for a rental!) is the only thing I can figure they are thinking for this property as I dont see them doing well with a build and sell spec home. However, nothing in my life has surprised me more than Nantucket real estate, so I guess we'll see!

An interesting development on Union St is the recent listing of 18 Union for $5.25M. It is a nice stately home on the corner of Union and Coffin St (The Coffin name is from one of the original 7 settlers of Nantucket) It sold for $1.795M on 1/17/15 and has been completely renovated. This is pretty high for the street. This is illustrative of in-town properties in that you have Union St right out the front door, Coffin St right along the right side of the house and the house at 16 Union is literally 2 feet away. You will have to be ok with this if you want to be really close to Main St. If not, I think 2 Camelia provides a good balance between close to Town and enough room so you aren't digging your phone out of your pocket every time your neighbor's rings.

Update! Sold for $3.985M!

Update: 18 Union has been reduced by $675,000 to $4.575M. Comparing this to the newly listed and renovated 11 Union, 18 Union is 746 sq ft bigger and the lot is nearly twice the size of #11 which leaves a back yard or the possibility for a small cottage or garage. Now the $1.58M higher price makes a bit more sense, but still more than $2M more than the $2.5M I think #11 will eventually sell for, we'll see though. If this can sell for a good price first though, it may help the two 11's selling prices. We will see.

Update #2 18 Union has been reduced again by $180,000 to $.4.395M. This is more like it. The $5.25M initial price was really high, but nothing wrong with going for it.

So thats probably more than you ever wanted to know about Union St. Oh yea, 17 Union is on the market for $2.5M, so put that into the mix too.

9 Back St $1,000,000

Sold on 1/19/07, this comparably sized lot located 250 ft away from 2 Camelia sold for $1,000,000. 2 Camelia is more private has the benefit of being on a private dead end road and is priced 25% below this 9 year old sale.

Incidentally the house next door to this lot (to the right) at 7.5 Back St was listed in April for $1,975,000. According to the assessor the house itself is assessed at $947,500 and is 96% complete. This would work out to about $986,979 at 100% complete, or $442/sq ft. Since the $442 per sq ft is close to the $445/sq ft construction cost (on a selling basis) that we saw at 1 Long Pond, this makes the assessor's estimate quite reasonable. Subtracting that from the asking price leaves $988,021 for the implied value of the land (hmmm, there's that $1M again).

Also of recent note, the house to the left of this lot didnt even last one day (7/20/16) on the market priced at $1.925M.

Also in the neighborhood, 58 Pleasant is under agreement from an ask of $1.295M (7/22/16). This is a smallish (1263 sq ft house and 504 sq ft cottage) combo that last sold in 2006 for $1.01M. It went on the market for a while in 2011 and again in 2014 for $895,000 and then again in Sept 2015 for $1.395M, reduced to $1.295M and now is under P&S. Interesting 44.6% $400,000 jump there in the last 2 years! This is up near 5 Corners and has (kind of) 2 parking spots in-line (meaning one is always "parked in") and will have traffic idling outside the front door many times in the summer. The land assessment is very close to 2 Camelia's (only $5500 less), but I wouldnt put this location in the same category, 2 Camelia is a much nicer spot. This has been a vacation rental for years (booked Jul and Aug at $6500/week VRBO #743482).

Fixer Uppers

There have been a few fixer uppers that have sold in this area in the last few years and some people have asked me "what about that sale over there? It even had a house on it!"

Well...

76 Pleasant St. This antique (1850ish) house which borders 2 Camelia came on the market in Aug '15 and sold for $717K this April. It was where Camelia Oliver raised 11(!) children, hence the name Camelia Lane. It was still an antique and needs a new foundation, roof, has no insulation, the only bathroom is in one of the bedrooms, etc etc. There are logs (trees with the bark still on!) used as support (because it was needed!) in the basement, which is low and mostly a dirt floor. Because of its age, you cant tear it down. There is plenty of room to expand (1600 sq ft of additional ground cover) and thats where the value is, but whatever the new owner's plans are (I've looked and he usually keeps places for a few years fixing them up then selling), they will have to incorporate the (small) old house into those plans. Still, this was the best deal in fixer uppers in the neighborhood I think, mostly because of the 1600 sq ft of additional ground cover available. Most of the others had very little, if any additional ground cover left.

36 York St. This house sold for $1.485M on 8/24/16 This house on a tiny lot in 30% ground cover R1 zoning does not have ANY NADA ZERO available ground cover left. It is on the part of York St on the way up toward the Old Mill and sold for $825K in April of this year. This was a never ending restoration (so it seemed, it was last sold in 2010 for $480K). It had a good head start though (outside was complete) so it was finished quickly and came to market on 7/14/16 for $1.55M, reduced to $1.495M and has now sold for $1.485M. The listing says its 1650 sq ft but I think a good part of that (1/3rd?) is finished basement. They did a nice job on it though which undoubtedly contributed to its quick sale. I initially thought he paid a little too much because I never thought it would go for $1.5M (there I go, surprised again!), but it turned into a good flip for this local builder because all the cans of old house worms had already been encountered and fixed leaving just the new interior stuff left (the 2nd mouse gets the cheese in this case). I think $1.5M for a tiny house like this 5 feet from busy York St bodes very well for a nice 2500ish sq ft house on a much larger more private and quiet Camelia Ln.

Next is 10 Back St. This is approx 100 feet to the northeast of 2 Camelia. This sold for $737K in Oct of 2013. This was set up as a duplex and was a rental for years. It ended up needing complete replacement (the only original detail left is the interior wooden staircase seen below) but it was old enough that the HDC wouldnt let them do anything but rebuild the same house (on the outside anyway). So the $737K was basically their lot price. The lot is smaller than 2 Camelia and their front step is about 4 feet from the pavement on Back St. The value once completed (3 years later it is weather tight but still open stud inside) will be probably about $1.5M because the sale of 9 Back St (in less than 1 day!) for $1.837M is a bigger house plus garage apt on a bigger lot. So their land cost will end up being about 49% of final value. This means they will also likely have little equity once the house is finished. There is a certain level of comfort that when you buy a vacant lot you know you arent buying a 200 year old can of worms that ends up costing far more than you originally expected.

Now, would a real estate agent have told you all of this???

Thats all for now, good luck in your search!

Nantucket Real Estate Speculator

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Old Site

10 York St $895,000

86 Hummock Pond Rd $598K

Aurora Lane Lots

16 West York Lane $595,000

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Saturday, June 10, 2017

Old Site

10 York St $895,000

86 Hummock Pond Rd $598K

Aurora Lane Lots

​16 West York Lane $595,000

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16 West York Lane $595,000